2006 Senate Predictions

Here are my predictions for the 06 Senate races. (The link takes you to the NYT’s “States in Play” map, customized by yours truly).

The Senate goes 50/50 and we have an even more partisan, divisive era in politics, with even less action from the Legislative Branch and even less policy promoted by either party than before. Can’t wait.

Looking at individual states:

Arizona: Republican retention. Kyl has a huge lead, he is an incumbent, and his first and last names have three letters each. I am quite tickled by that last point.

Connecticut: Democrat retention. I think Joe will take it as he has support from everyone except for the extremes of the two parties, and recent polls are showing as much. I know he’s and Indy but, he has promised to caucus with the Dems.

Maryland: Democrat retention. Blue State and how can we forget Lt. Gov. Steele’s stupidity.

Michigan: Democrat retention. Talking to people in the Wolverine State, its clear that the people support Senator Stabenow. Allegedy–from what I have heard–outsourcing is becoming the issue in MI, and Trade Unions are seeing a resurgence of power in MI. Being a Blue State will help the incumbent Senator too.

Minnesota: Democrat retention. Have I mentioned how important it is to be a Blue State in this cycle? Minnesotans do not like Bush–or any Republicans for that matter.

Missouri: Democrat pickup. Senator Talent hasn’t broken 50%, he is a Bush loyalist, and a good deal of support for Ms. McCaskill seems to come from poor opinions of Republicans in MO.

Montana: Democrat pick up. Burns has said plenty of stupid things in recent weeks, Tester continues to gain in the polls, and Senator Burns has not learned that Senate hearings are not occasions to doze off.

Nebraska: Democrat retention. There has been some turmoil in the NE GOP. Senator Nelson is enjoying a comfortable lead in the polls and wins big in November.
Ohio: Democrat pickup. The Ohio GOP has made plenty of kerfuffles in this race and it affects their candidates. Ohians also seem to not like the GOP corruption in their state.

Pennsylvania: Democrat pickup. Rick Santorum is learning that voters in a liberal state do not like ultra conservatives as their Senator. One would have to assume that claiming WMDs had been found in Iraq in July is not a very good thing to say in PA. Poor chap, someone should have told him.

Rhode Island: Democrat pickup. Chafee is a RINO. He is in a very blue state, and he is loosing all his support. Were Chafee to win, I would not be alarumed to see his switch parties.
Virginia: Republican retention. Yes, I am well aware of the fact Senator Allen is now insisting that he was not calling Mr. Sidarth, a racial slur, but “shit head”. I know his lead has been cut to six points. But I still think the GOP golden boy gets re elected due to his cult status and being in a Red State. The comment does hurt him in ‘08 when he runs if he decides to run for president.

Washington: Democrat retention. If two recent elections are anything to go by, the WA race will be close. Cantwell voted for the war, which very unpopular in Washington State. She has an anti-war Black Panther candidate who will make the race interesting, but her leads in the polls are too significant.

I also predict the liberal blogosphere will spin this quasi victory into a total victory–as they are wont to do–saying “this proved the American people are fed up with the corrupt Republican Party. They want change”.

Granted, that would be a pretty top hole job from the DSCC to pick up five seats, but it is not a victory for the Dems if they are still not the majority party.